أزمة أسعار الغذاء 2007-2008

رسم بياني لحجم التجارة العالمية في القمح, الحبوب الخشنة وفول الصويا من 1990 حتى 2008, والمتوقع حتى 2016. وزارة الزراعة الأمريكية, 2008.
رسم بياني يبين المخزون المستخدم من فول الصويا بالولايات المتحدة, الذرة والقمح, من 1977 إلى 2007, والمتوقع حتى 2016. وزارة الزراعة الأمريكية, سبتمبر 2007.

شهدت الأعوام 2007-2008 إرتفاعات هائلة في أسعار الغذاء العالمي, مما تسبب في خلق أزمة دولية وتسبب أيضا في عدم الإستقرار الاقتصادي والسياسي وفي إضطرابات اجتماعية في كلا من الدول الفقيرة والنامية.


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زيادة الأسعار جذريا

ما بين بدايات 2006 و2008, زاد المتوسط العالمي لسعر الأرز بنسبة 217%, القمح بنسبة 136%, الذرة بنسبة 125% و فول الصويا بنسبة 107%.[1] في نهاية ابريل 2008, بلغت أسعار الأرز 24 سنت a pound, ضعف السعر قبل ذلك بسبعة أشهر.[2]


العوامل

يوجد العديد من العوامل التي ساهمت في إرتفاع سعر الغذاء. وعزا المحللون إرتفاع أسعار الغذاء إلى perfect storm أدت إلى نقص المحاصيل الزراعية في أجزاء متفرقة من العالم ، زيادة استخدام الوقود الحيوي, إنخفاض إحتياطي الغذاء, وقام نظام الاحتياط الفدرالي الأمريكي بتقليل أسعار الفائدة حيث أن المال لم يعد وسيلة للحفاظ على الثروة على المدى الطويل (استثمر الناس أموالهم في السلع الغذائية مما تسبب في زيادة الطلب وإرتفاع الأسعار) ، زيادة الطلب لى السلع الاستهلاكية في آسيا ، زيادة أسعار البترول ، والتغيرات الاقتصادية في الاقتصاد العالمي.[3] المعونات الغذائية على المدى الطويل للدول النامية ساهمت في زيادة أزمة أسعار الغذاء عالميا.[4]

تأثير الغذاء مقابل الوقود

نمو السكان العالمي

Growth in food production has been greater than population growth. Food per person increased during the 1961-2005 period.

زيادة الطلب على موارد غذاء إضافية

2005/1990 ratios of per capita consumption[5]
الهند الصين البرازيل نيجريا
الحبوب 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.0
اللحوم 1.2 2.4 1.7 1.0
الألبان 1.2 3.0 1.2 1.3
الأسماك 1.2 2.3 0.9 0.8
الفواكه 1.3 3.5 0.8 1.1
الخضروات 1.3 2.9 1.3 1.3

تأثير زيادة أسعار البترول

مضاربات مالية

تأثير تحرير التجارة

معونات الوقود البيولوجي في الولايات المتحدة والاتحاد الأوروبي

Idled farmland

المعونات الزراعية

Distorted global rice market

Crop shortfalls from natural disasters

التربة والخسائر في الإنتاج

إرتفاع مستويات الاوزون

واحد من العوامل البيئية التي ساهمت في أزمة أسعار الغذاء حو إرتفاع مستويات الاوزون في الغلاف الجوي. وقد ثبت أن للنبات حساسية عالية تجاه مستويات الاوزون ، وإنخفاض الحاصلات للمحاصيل الغذائية الهامة , مثل القمح وفول الصويا يمكن أن يكون نتيجة متعلقة بمستويات الاوزون. تم دراسة مستويات الاوزون على دلتا نهر يانگستي حيث ثبت تأثيرها على oilseed rape, وهو أحد أفراد عائلة الكرنب ويعتبر ثالث مصدر للزيوت النباتية المستهلكة في الصين. تم زراعة النباتات في حجرات يتم التحكم فيها بنسبة الاوزون وثبت إنخفاض الكتلة الحيوية في النبات بنسبة من 10-20% عند زيادة مستويات الاوزون. وانخفض أيضا معدل إنتاج البذور والزيوت.[6]


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إرتفاع الأسعار

From the beginning of 2007 to early 2008, the prices of some of the most basic international food commodities increased dramatically on international markets. The international market price of wheat doubled from February 2007 to February 2008 hitting a record high of over USD$10 a bushel.[7] Rice prices also reached ten year highs. In some nations, milk and meat prices more than doubled, while soy (which hit a 34 year high price in December 2007[8]) and maize prices have increased dramatically.

Total food import bills rose by an estimated 25% for developing countries in 2007. Researchers from the Overseas Development Institute have suggested this problem will be worsened by a likely fall in food aid. As food aid is programmed by budget rather than volume, rising food prices mean that the World Food Programme (WFP) needs an extra $500 million just to sustain the current operations.[9]

To ensure that food remains available for their domestic populations and to combat dramatic price inflation, major rice exporters, such as China, البرازيل, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia and Egypt, have imposed strict export bans on rice.[10] Conversely, several other nations, including الأرجنتين, Ukraine, Russia, and Serbia have, as well, either imposed high tariffs or blocked the export of wheat and other foodstuffs altogether, driving up prices still further for net food importing nations while trying to isolate their internal markets. Finally, North Korea, is also suffering from the food crisis (to such extent that a North Korean official was quoted in June '08 with saying "Life is more than difficult. It seems that everyone is going to die")..[11] This nation however is solely relying on food assistance to cope with the crisis.[12]


في الدول النامية

الولايات المتحدة

The global food price crisis has appeared in the U.S.A. as the rice shortage[بحاجة لمصدر]. The retail prices of food in the U.S. increased four percent according to the Consumer Price Index in 2007, the largest increase in 17 years. The USDA Economic Research Service predicted that prices would increase another three to four percentage points throughout 2008.[13]

In April 2008 Sam's Club instituted a limit on how much long-grain white rice that restaurant and retail customers could purchase due to shortages. Purchases of other types of rice were not restricted.[14][15] A May 2008 national survey found that food banks and pantries across the U.S. were being forced to cut back on food distribution as 99 percent of respondents reported an increase in the number of people requesting services. Rising food and fuel prices, inadequate food stamp benefits, unemployment, underemployment, and rent or mortgage costs were factors reported as forcing an average of 15-20 percent more people.[16] Compounding this issue, USDA bonus foods have declined by $200 million and local food donations were down nationally about 9 percent over the same period. According to the California Association of Food Banks, which is an umbrella organization of nearly all food banks in the state, food banks are at the “beginning of a crisis.”[17]

التأثير على المزارعين

If global price movements are transmitted to local markets, farmers in the developing world could benefit from the rising price of food. According to researchers from the Overseas Development Institute, this may depend on farmers’ capacity to respond to changing market conditions. Experience suggests that farmers lack the credit and inputs needed to respond in the short term. In the medium or long term, however, they could benefit, as seen in the Asian green revolution or in many African countries in the recent past.[9]

الإضرابات والإجراءات الحكومية في كل البلاد والمناطق

The price rises affected parts of Asia and Africa particularly severely with Burkina Faso,[18] Cameroon, Senegal, Mauritania, Cote d'Ivoire,[19] Egypt[20] and Morocco seeing protests and riots in late 2007 and early 2008 over the unavailability of basic food staples. Other countries which have seen food riots or are facing related unrest are: Mexico, Bolivia, Yemen, Uzbekistan, Bangladesh,[21] Pakistan,[22] Sri Lanka,[23] and South Africa.[24]

بنگلادش

10,000 workers rioted close to the Bangladeshi capital Dhaka, smashing cars and buses and vandalising factories in anger at high food prices and low wages. Dozens of people, including at least 20 police officials, were injured in the violence. Ironically, the country achieved food self-sufficiency in 2002, but food prices increased drastically due to the reliance of agriculture on oil and fossil fuels.[25]

Economists estimate 30 million of the country's 150 million people could go hungry.[26]

البرازيل

In April 2008, the البرازيلian government announced a temporary ban on the export of rice. The ban is intended to protect domestic consumers.[27][28]

بوركينا فاسو

One of the earlier food riots took place in Burkina Faso, on February 22, when rioting broke in the country's second and third largest cities over soaring food prices (up to 65 percent increase), sparing however the capital, Ouagadougou, where soldiers were mobilized throughout strategic points. The government promised to lower taxes on food and to release food stocks. Over 100 people were arrested in one of the towns.[29]

الكاميرون

Cameroon, the world's fourth largest cocoa producer, saw large scale rioting in late February 2008, in protest against inflating food and fuel prices, as well as the attempt by President Paul Biya to extend his 25-year rule. At least seven people were killed in the worst unrest seen in the country in over fifteen years.[30] This figure was later increased to 24.[31] Part of the government response to the protests was a reduction in import taxes on foods including rice, flour, and fish. The government reached an agreement with retailers by which prices would be lowered in exchange for the reduced import taxes. As of late April 2008, however, reports suggested that prices had not eased and in some cases had even increased.[32]

On April 24, 2008, the government of Cameroon announced a two-year emergency program designed to double Cameroon's food production and achieve food self-sufficiency.[33]


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ساحل العاج

On March 31, Côte d'Ivoire's capital Abidjan saw police use tear gas and a dozen protesters injured following food riots that gripped the city. The riots followed dramatic hikes in the price of food and fuel, with the price of beef rising from $1.68 to $2.16 per kilogram, and the price of gasoline rising from $1.44 to $2.04 per liter, in only three days.[34]

مصر

In Egypt, a boy was killed from gunshot to the head after Egyptian police intervened in violent demonstrations over rising food prices that gripped the industrial city of Mahalla on April 8. Food prices, and particularly the price of bread, have doubled over the last several months.[35]

اثيوبيا

Drought and the food price crisis are threatening thousands in Ethiopia.[36]

هايتي

On April 12, 2008, the Haitian Senate voted to dismiss Prime Minister Jacques-Édouard Alexis after violent food riots hit the country.[37] The food riots caused the death of 5 people.[31] Prices for food items such as rice, beans, fruit and condensed milk have gone up 50 percent in Haiti since late 2007 while the price of fuel has tripled in only two months.[38] Riots broke out in April due to the high prices, and the government is attempting to restore order by subsidizing a 15 percent reduction in the price of rice.[39]

الهند

Food riots were reported in the Indian state of West Bengal in 2007 over shortages of food. India has banned the export of rice except for Basmati types of rice which attract a premium price.[40]

اندونيسيا

Street protests over the price of food took place in Indonesia[41] where food staples and gasoline have nearly doubled in price since January 2008.[42]

أمريكا اللاتينية

In April 2008, the Latin American members of the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) met in Brasília in order to confront the issues of high food prices, scarcities and violence that are affecting the region.[43]

المكسيك

The President of Mexico, Felipe Calderón, with industry representatives and members of the Confederation of Industrial Chambers (Concamin), agreed to freeze prices of more than 150 consumer staples, such as coffee, sardines, tuna, oil, soup or tea, among others, until the end of December 2008. The measure was carried out in an attempt to control inflation, which stood at an annual rate of 4.95%, the highest increase since December 2004.

موزمبيق

In mid February, rioting that started in the Mozambican rural town of Chokwe and then spread to the capital, Maputo, has resulted in at least four deaths. The riots were reported in the media to have been, at least in part, over food prices and were termed "food riots." A biofuel advocacy publication, however, claimed that these were, in fact, fuel riots, limited to the rise in the cost of diesel, and argued that the "food riot" characterization worked to fan "anti-biofuels sentiment."[44]

پاكستان

The Pakistan Army has been deployed to avoid the seizure of food from fields and warehouses. This hasn't stopped the food prices from increasing. The new government has been blamed for not managing the countries food stockpiles properly.[45]

مينامار

Once the world's top rice producer, Myanmar has produced enough rice to feed itself until now. Rice exports dropped over four decades from nearly 4 million tons to only about 40,000 tons last year, mostly due to neglect by Myanmar's ruling generals of infrastructure, including irrigation and warehousing. On 3 May 2008 Cyclone Nargis stripped Myanmar's rice-growing districts, ruining large areas with salt water. U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that these areas produce 65 percent of the Southeast Asian country's rice. Worries of long-term food shortages and rationing are rife. The military regime says nothing about the rice crisis, but continues to export rice at the same rate. "...at least the next two harvests are going to be greatly affected and there’ll be virtually no output from those areas during that time. So we’re likely to see considerable food and rice shortages for the next couple of years. The damage to the economy is going to be profound." said economist and Myanmar expert Sean Turnell, of Australia's Macquarie University. (interviewed in "The Irriwaddy", Tuesday, May 27, 2008)

پنما

In Panama, in response to higher rice prices the government began buying rice at the high market price and selling rice to the public at a lower subsidized price at food kiosks.

الفلپين

In الفلپين, the Arroyo government insisted on April 13 that there would be no food riots in the country and that there could be no comparison with Haiti's situation.[46] Chief Presidential Legal Counsel, Sergio Apostol stated that: "Haiti is not trying to solve the problem, while we are doing something to address the issue. We don't have a food shortage. So, no comparison..."[47] Comments by the Justice Secretary, Raul Gonzalez, the following day, that food riots are not far fetched, were quickly rebuked by the rest of the government.[48]

On April 15, the Philippines, the world's largest rice importer, urged China, Japan, and other key Asian nations, to convene an emergency meeting, especially taking issue with those countries' rice export bans. "Free trade should be flowing," Philippine Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap stated.[49] In late April 2008, the Philippines government requested that the World Bank exert pressure on rice exporting countries to end export restrictions.[50]

روسيا

The Russian government pressured retailers to freeze food prices before key elections for fear of a public backlash against the rising cost of food in October 2007.[51] The freeze ended on May 1, 2008.[52]

السنغال

On 31 March 2008, Senegal saw riots in response to the rise in the price of food and fuel. Twenty four people were arrested and detained in a response which one local human rights group claimed included "torture" and other "unspeakable acts" on the part of the security forces.[53] Further protests took place in Dakar on 26 April 2008.[54]

الصومال

Witnesses and officials in Somalia said thousands of angry Somalis rioted on May 5, 2008 over rising food prices and the collapse of the nation's currency, culminating in clashes with government troops and armed shopkeepers that killed at least five protesters.[55] The protests occurred amid a serious humanitarian emergency due to the Ethiopian war in Somalia.

طاجيكستان

The Christian Science Monitor, neweurasia, and other media observers are predicting that a nascent hunger crisis will erupt into a full famine as a consequence of the energy shortages.[56] UN experts announced on 10 October that almost one-third of Tajikistan’s 6.7 million inhabitants may not have enough to eat for the winter of 2008-09.[57]

اليمن

Food riots in southern Yemen that began in late March and continued through early April, saw police stations torched, and roadblocks were set up by armed protesters. The army has deployed tanks and other military vehicles. Although the riots involved thousands of demonstrators over several days and over 100 arrests, officials claimed no fatalities; residents, however, claimed that at least one of the fourteen wounded people has died.[58]

التوقعات

The UN (FAO) released a study in December 2007 projecting a 49 percent increase in African cereal prices, and 53 percent in European prices, through July 2008.[59] In April 2008, the World Bank, in combination with the IMF, announced a series of measures aimed at mitigating the crisis, including increased loans to African farmers and emergency monetary aid to badly affected areas such as Haiti.[60] According to FAO director Jacques Diouf, however, the World Food Programme needs an immediate cash injection of at least $1700 million,[61] far more than the tens of million-worth in measures already pledged. On 28 April, 2008, the United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon established a Task Force on the Global Food Security Crisis [1] under his chairmanship and composed of the heads of the United Nations specialized agencies, funds and programmes, Bretton Woods institutions and relevant parts of the UN Secretariat to co-ordinate efforts to alleviate the crisis.[62]

إجراءات الحكومات

IFAD is making up to US$200 million available to support poor farmers boost food production in face of the global food crisis.[63]

On May 2, 2008 U.S. President George W. Bush said he was asking Congress to approve an extra $770 million funding for international food aid.[64] On October 16, 2008, former US president Bill Clinton scolded the bipartisan coalition in Congress that killed the idea of making some aid donations in cash rather than in food.[65]

The release of Japan's rice reserves onto the market may bring the rice price down significantly. As of May 16, anticipation of the move had already lowered prices by 14% in a single week.[66]

On April 30, 2008 Thailand announced the creation of the Organization of Rice Exporting Countries (OREC) with the potential to develop a price-fixing cartel for rice.[67][68] This is seen by some as an action to capitalise on the crisis[بحاجة لمصدر].

In June 2008 the Food and Agriculture Organization hosted a High-Level Conference on World Food Security, in which $1.2 billion in food aid was committed for the 75 million people in 60 countries hardest hit by rising food prices.[69]

In June 2008, a sustained commitment from the G8 was called for by some humanitarian organizations.[70]

On October 23, 2008, Associated Press reported the following:

"Former President Clinton told a U.N. gathering Thursday [Oct 16, 2008] that the global food crisis shows "we all blew it, including me," by treating food crops "like color TVs" instead of as a vital commodity for the world's poor. ...Clinton criticized decades of policymaking by the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and others, encouraged by the U.S., that pressured Africans in particular into dropping government subsidies for fertilizer, improved seed and other farm inputs as a requirement to get aid. Africa's food self-sufficiency declined and food imports rose. Now skyrocketing prices in the international grain trade — on average more than doubling between 2006 and early 2008 — have pushed many in poor countries deeper into poverty."[71]

Food is not a commodity like others. We should go back to a policy of maximum food self-sufficiency. It is crazy for us to think we can develop countries around the world without increasing their ability to feed themselves.[72]

— Former US President Bill Clinton، Speech at United Nations World Food Day, October 16, 2008

إنخفاض أسعار الغذاء

In December 2008, the global economic slowdown, decreasing oil prices, and speculation of decreased demand for commodities worldwide brought about sharp decreases in the price of staple crops from their earlier highs. Corn prices on the Chicago Board of Trade dropped from US $7.99 per bushel in June to US $3.74 per bushel in mid-December; wheat and rice prices experienced similar decreases. [73]The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization, however, warned against "a false sense of security", noting that the credit crisis could cause farmers to reduce plantings. [74]

انظر أيضا

المصادر

  1. ^ Financial speculators reap profits from global hunger
  2. ^ خطأ استشهاد: وسم <ref> غير صحيح؛ لا نص تم توفيره للمراجع المسماة cyclone
  3. ^ Corcoran, Katherine (2008-03-24). "Food Prices Soaring Worldwide". Associated Press.
  4. ^ "Leader: The rocketing price of food | Comment is free | The Guardian". The Guardian. Retrieved 2008-10-03.
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  6. ^ Lower Crop Yields Due to Ozone a Factor in World Food Crisis Newswise, Retrieved on July 15, 2008.
  7. ^ Wheat breaks through $10 a bushel, BBC, 17 December 2007.
  8. ^ Corn's key role as food and fuel, Adam Brookes BBC News, 17 December 2007.
  9. ^ أ ب Rising Food Prices: A Global Crisis, Overseas Development Institute, 22 April 2008.
  10. ^ "The global food crisis and the Indian situation", Navhind Times, April 14, 2008
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  12. ^ North Korea coping with the food crisis
  13. ^ “Summary of Recent Retail Food Price Research and Trends”, “Food Marketing Institute”, 2008-02-26. Retrieved on 2008-06-18.
  14. ^ "Rationing of rice in US food shock". Irish Independent. 2008-04-24. p. 32. Check date values in: |date= (help); |access-date= requires |url= (help)
  15. ^ "Food crisis: rationing introduced in bid to protect rice supplies". The Times. 2008-04-24. Retrieved 2008-04-25. Check date values in: |date= (help)
  16. ^ “New Survey Underscores Urgent Need For Farm Bill As Demands Are Up, Food Down”, “America’s Second Harvest”, 2008-5-12. Retrieved on 2008-6-18.
  17. ^ [ http://www.cafoodbanks.org/docs/crisis/Food_Crisis_FB%20(2).pdf “International Food Crisis: Food Bank Clients in Peril”], California Association of Food Banks, 2008-6. Retrieved on 2008-06-18.
  18. ^ Burkina general strike starts over cost of living Mathieu Bonkoungou: Reuters, April 8, 2008
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  20. ^ Egyptians hit by rising food prices, BBC, 11 March 2008.
    Two die after clashes in Egypt industrial town Gamal: Reuters, April 8, 2008.
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  31. ^ أ ب Time; Food Prices:What went wrong (16 June 2008)
  32. ^ IRIN 2008, 'CAMEROON: Lifting of import taxes fails to reduce food prices', 29 April. Retrieved on 30 April 2008.
  33. ^ IRIN 2008, 'Cameroon: Food self-sufficient in two years?', IRIN, 25 April. Retrieved on 27 April 2008.
  34. ^ "Côte d'Ivoire: Food Price Hikes Spark Riots", AllAfrica.com, March 31, 2008.
  35. ^ "Egyptian boy dies from wounds sustained in Mahalla food riots", International Herald Tribune. April 8, 2008
  36. ^ A malnourished Ethiopian infant is comforted by her mother at a relief camp in 2005. Addis Ababa says the number of Ethiopians in need of emergency food aid in drought-affected regions has risen to 4.5 million. © 2007 AFP Boris Heger (June 3, 2008). "France 24 | 4.5 million drought-stricken Ethiopians need food aid: govt | France 24". France24.com. Retrieved 2008-10-03.
  37. ^ "Haiti PM ousted over soaring food prices", AFP, April 13, 2008
  38. ^ "The world food crisis", Jamaica Gleaner, April 13, 2008
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  40. ^ guardian.co.uk, 26 February 2008
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  51. ^ timesonline.co.uk
  52. ^ St. Petersburg Times
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  55. ^ http://www.somalinet.com/news/world/Somalia/15416
  56. ^ Vadim (March 4 2008). "Hunger to replace energy crisis". neweurasia. Check date values in: |date= (help)
  57. ^ Tajikistan: Almost One-Third of the Population Is in Danger of Going Hungry This Winter, EurasiaNet
  58. ^ "Food riots rock Yemen", The Intelligence Daily, April 4, 2008.
  59. ^ Cereal prices hit poor countries, BBC, February 14, 2008.
    UN warns on soaring food prices, 17 December, 2007.
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